Texas Border Business
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Oct. 13, 2026) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.8 points in September to 97.9, one-tenth of a point below the 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose 1 point to 90, remaining well above the historical average of 68. Labor quality or availability remained the top reported issue for the third consecutive month.
“Small business optimism stayed near the long-term average in September as Main Street owners remain uncertain about business conditions,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Small business owners are proceeding with caution as they interpret how rising costs, interest rates, and the difficulty in finding qualified employees are impacting their business.”
Key findings of the September survey include:
- Reports of “labor quality or availability” as owners’ single most important problem rose 3 points in September to 26%, making it the top reported issue for the third consecutive month.
- The second top issue in September was inflation, with 20% of owners reporting it as their single most important problem, up 4 points from August. September’s reading remains elevated, with a historical average of 7%.
- Expectations for better business conditions worsened for the second consecutive month. A net 6% (seasonally adjusted) of owners expect better conditions in the next six months, down 4 points from August but remaining above average.
- Only 7% (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down 5 points from August.
- Small business owners’ self-evaluation of the health of their business shifted negatively in September, with substantially more owners reporting their business “fair” (35%, up seven points) rather than “good” (48%, down nine points).
- The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains fell 4 points to a net negative 10% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest reading since September 2024. A net 2% (seasonally adjusted) plan inventory investment in the coming months, up 1 point from August and the highest reading since December 2024.
- A net 8% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, up 4 points from August and the highest level since June 2025. The average interest rate on short-maturity loans was 8.2% in September, up 0.7 points from August and close to the historical average of 8.3%.
- Poor sales and taxes are tied as the third most important problem among small business owners in September. Eleven percent of small business owners reported poor sales as their top issue, up 1 point from August and the third consecutive month of increase. The percent of small business owners reporting taxes as their single most important problem decreased 5 points from August to 11%.
As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 32% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in September, down 3 points from August and 8 points above the historical average. Of the 51% of owners hiring or trying to hire in September, 87% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 17% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, unchanged from August.
In the words of NFIB member small business owners:
“Prices for fuel and raw materials are too high, and finding qualified labor is difficult.” – Manufacturing, WI
“Our business could increase if we were able to hire skilled labor.” – Services, ME
“I find my guests are uncertain about the future of their financial conditions and are starting to cut back.” – Services, OH
Click here to view the entire NFIB SBET Report.
The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in September 2026.
Information source: NFIB
