Texas Border Business
Texas has led the nation in economic and population growth for many years, but the gains have been far from steady or evenly distributed across the state’s vast expanse. We recently completed a detailed analysis of economic patterns across Texas, including a look back at the past 20 years using granular county-level information. Let’s briefly explore some of the things that the historical data reveal.
An interesting depiction of growth is available from NASA’s VIIRS satellite imagery, which captures lights at night. Comparing images from 2012 and 2024 reveals the outward spread of the major metropolitan areas as well as the glow of drilling and flaring activity across the Permian Basin. The numbers tell a similar story.
Over the past 20 years, wage and salary employment in Texas rose by about 4.7 million jobs, an increase of 47%. However, the gains were highly concentrated. The Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio metropolitan areas accounted for approximately 81% of the expansion. Only 59 counties outpaced the statewide rate, and job growth in the typical (median) county was about 21%, or less than half the state pace. Some 35 counties actually lost jobs.
The strongest percentage gains occurred in suburban counties as the metropolitan ring expanded. Employment rose 172% in Williamson County, 168% in Collin, 166% in Rockwall, 160% in Hays, and 146% in both Fort Bend and Montgomery. Population patterns were similar, with the most rapid growth in counties near the major urban centers and declines in a number of rural areas. Commuting data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and other measures confirm these linkages, as many suburban residents earn their paychecks in the urban core.
Real gross product (output adjusted for inflation) nearly doubled statewide over the period, rising 93%. The large metropolitan areas again dominated, accounting for about 74% of the increase. The most dramatic percentage gains, however, occurred in oil and gas production areas as the shale revolution transformed the Permian Basin and the Eagle Ford Shale. Employment in the Midland metropolitan area more than doubled (up 114%). Output in the Permian Basin region rose almost sixfold, and some individual counties saw truly staggering increases (real gross product in Martin County is more than 50 times its earlier level). Conversely, about 30 counties experienced net declines in output.
These patterns have profound implications for the future of Texas. Rapidly expanding areas face challenges in providing infrastructure, housing, and a skilled workforce, while others must find ways to stabilize their economies and create new opportunities for residents. The past two decades have reshaped the economic landscape of Texas, and understanding where and why growth has occurred is essential to preparing for what lies ahead. Stay safe!
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Dr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com), which has served the needs of more than 3,000 clients over the past four decades.
