Texas Border Business
Despite a chaotic period for the economy, the job market has remained fairly steady. Uncertainty was rampant, with on-again-off-again tariffs, geopolitical conflicts reaching new levels of intensity (and directly involving the United States), immigration crackdowns and other policy changes impacting workforce availability, and surging investment in and use of AI. Even amidst this milieu, overall jobs data looks okay (at least on the surface and for the moment).
The most recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the unemployment rate (4.3%) and the number of unemployed people (7.2 million) were little changed in March. More surprising, however, is the fact that the measures hardly changed over the prior year.
Nonetheless, there are inescapable signs beneath the surface that some people are struggling to find work. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more was up by 322,000 over the year, while the number of individuals not actively in the labor force but who wanted a job rose by 325,000, with the most discouraged among them a growing segment.
Monthly job numbers have also been fluctuating significantly, up 178,000 in March after a decrease of -133,000 in February. Revisions in both directions have also been unusually high. These patterns indicate that, beneath the deceptively stable overall statistics, there is a lot happening.
Industry performance is also uneven. Health care has been adding about 29,000 jobs per month, while industry groups including transportation and warehousing as well as financial activities are down notably from prior peaks. Federal government employment is down by some 355,000 (11.8%) from a peak in October 2024. (Note that those on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed because they received (or will receive) pay for the relevant period.) During 2025, net employment expansion was only about 116.000 positions for the entire year, which is far below that observed in a typical month in prior years.
There have also been widely publicized layoffs affecting highly paid workers in sectors which were rapidly growing until recently, including numerous major technology firms. The deployment of AI is changing corporate strategy, and at least temporary dislocation of employees in some occupations is inevitable. Entry-level jobs in some segments are also elusive.
With regard to job openings, there has also not been much change in the overall rate, which was 6.9 million in March, just 86,000 lower than a year prior. Looking at industries reveals a mixed bag, with some experiencing growing numbers of openings while others are in decline.
In short, relatively stable top-line numbers are hiding significant underlying churn which is bringing difficulties for hundreds of thousands of workers. Once global uncertainty calms, there should be some much-welcomed relief. Stay safe!
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Dr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com), which has served the needs of more than 3,000 clients over the past four decades.
