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Social Security, one of the most widely used federal programs, is once again in the spotlight amid claims that a second term for President Donald Trump would result in benefits being canceled and new legislation known as the One Big Beautiful Bill would “fix” the system by 2026. Available evidence shows that facts support neither claim, though significant financial challenges remain.
There is no credible proposal or evidence indicating that Trump plans to cancel Social Security benefits. On the contrary, he has repeatedly pledged to protect them. The Washington Post reported on August 14, 2025, that the president “claimed credit for fixing Social Security as it barrels to insolvency,” emphasizing his support for the program’s continuation. Critics, however, note that his administration includes “several figures who have long favored cutting or restructuring benefits,” raising concerns about the direction of future policy.
When analysts talk about “Social Security running out of money,” they are almost always referring to one part of the program — the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays retirement and survivors benefits. Social Security as a whole is made up of two separate trust funds: OASI, and the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund, which pays disability benefits. The 2024 Trustees Report projects that OASI will deplete its reserves by 2033. Insolvency in this context means the trust fund’s reserves are exhausted and benefits must be paid only from ongoing payroll tax revenue, resulting in automatic reductions — not the program’s termination. After reserves run out, payroll tax revenue will still come in, but only enough to cover roughly 77 to 81 percent of scheduled OASI benefits. The DI Trust Fund is on a more stable path and is not projected to run out as soon.
According to MarketWatch, the OASI depletion date would trigger “automatic reductions of about 23%” in retirement and survivors benefits if Congress takes no action. This is years later than the end of 2026, contradicting some claims circulating online.
The recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill, signed on July 4, 2025, increases the standard tax deduction for seniors to $6,000. According to the bill’s description, this change means that “88 to 90 percent of seniors will no longer pay income taxes on their Social Security benefits” (Wikipedia). While this provision offers immediate tax relief, it also reduces the amount of tax revenue flowing into the program. Kiplinger reports that this change could “accelerate the depletion date by up to a year or more,” with no measures in the bill to offset the lost revenue.
Experts caution that while the tax deduction is popular with many retirees, it does nothing to address Social Security’s long-term funding gap. “It’s a tax cut, not a fix,” The Washington Post quoted policy analysts as saying. The same article noted that the administration has not yet presented a comprehensive plan to ensure full benefits beyond the projected insolvency date.
Analysts generally agree that the only ways to shore up Social Security’s finances involve either increasing revenue — through higher payroll taxes, lifting the income cap on taxable wages, or redirecting other federal funds — or reducing future benefits. Any solution is likely to be politically difficult. As The Daily Beast observed, “Few politicians want to be seen as cutting benefits, but failing to act will have the same effect through automatic reductions.”
In short, the new tax law changes how Social Security benefits are taxed for seniors, but it does not secure the program’s financial future. The OASI Trust Fund remains on course to deplete its reserves around 2033, and without legislative action, that would trigger automatic benefit cuts. The Social Security program would continue operating, but millions of retirees and survivors would face smaller monthly checks.
SUMMARY
Recent claims that a second Trump term would cancel Social Security benefits or that the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill would fix the program by 2026 are not supported by evidence. The real issue is the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays retirement and survivors benefits and is projected to run out of reserves by 2033, not 2026.
Insolvency means the fund’s reserves are gone, and benefits would be paid only from payroll taxes — about 77–81% of scheduled amounts — resulting in smaller checks, not the program ending.
The One Big Beautiful Bill raises the standard deduction for seniors to $6,000, removing most from paying taxes on their Social Security. While popular, it reduces program revenue and could speed up OASI depletion by up to a year.
Experts — including economists, policy analysts, government program forecasters, and retirement specialists — say fixing the shortfall will require more revenue, benefit changes, or both. Without action, 23% benefit cuts will take effect when reserves run out.
