Texas Border Business
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The National Weather Service (NWS) Brownsville-Rio Grande Valley station has issued a three-month outlook for December through February. The key points of the outlook include:
- Warmer and Drier Conditions:
- The forecast predicts higher-than-average temperatures and lower precipitation for the RGV region, consistent with the effects of a weak La Niña.
- La Niña, which often leads to drier winters in South Texas, has a more than 70% chance of development this season.
- Possibility of Cold Snaps:
- Despite the general trend toward warmth, the forecast does not rule out significant cold periods.
- Meteorologist Andrei Evbuoma highlighted the potential for one or more “Arctic Express” events—cold air masses that could bring sharp temperature drops—during late December and January.
Potential for Freezes
While the outlook emphasizes a predominantly warm and dry winter, it acknowledges the possibility of major cold events. If an “Arctic Express” materializes, the RGV could experience:
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- Short-Term Freezing Temperatures:
- Arctic air masses have historically brought sub-freezing conditions to South Texas. For instance, past Arctic events have dropped temperatures into the teens and 20s (°F), impacting agriculture, infrastructure, and residents.
- The exact timing and intensity of such events are uncertain but are typically more likely during late December or January.
- Impact on Local Conditions:
- Even a brief freeze could significantly affect the region, known for its sensitive citrus crops and other agricultural products. If a cold snap is forecasted, residents may need to take precautions to protect plants, pipes, and pets.
Recommendations
- Be Prepared for Variable Weather:
- While the overall outlook leans warmer and drier, the possibility of extreme cold cannot be discounted.
- Monitoring updates from the NWS, especially as late December and January approach, will be essential.
- Practical Preparations:
- Ensure that outdoor plants, especially citrus and tropical varieties, can be covered or brought indoors if freezing conditions are forecast.
- Wrap pipes and prepare heating systems to function efficiently during potential cold snaps.
- Stay Informed:
- Check reputable sources like the NWS and Tim Smith at KRGV Channel 5 for real-time updates on cold fronts or Arctic air incursions.
The Rio Grande Valley is expected to experience a warmer and drier winter overall due to La Niña. However, the potential for one or more significant freezes—especially between late December and January—remains. Residents and businesses should remain vigilant and prepared for sudden temperature drops in late December or early January.
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