Texas Border Business
The US Census Bureau recently released information regarding population patterns in local areas across the country for the July 1, 2023 through July 1, 2024 period. As might be expected, Texas fares quite well.
The greater Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth areas ranked second and third in numeric growth (behind New York), with gains of about 198,200 and 177,900, respectively. In other words, the two largest urban centers in Texas alone added over 1,000 people per day to the state’s population. With regard to growth rates, both Midland and Odessa were among the 10 leaders in the country,
Texas has been leading the national pace of population expansion for quite some time, due to both in-migration from other states and countries and a relatively high natural rate of increase. The state added almost 563,000 residents during the relevant period, with almost 158,800 due to natural change (births minus deaths) and 404,800 stemming from net migration (including about 319,600 from abroad).
The most rapid expansion is generally found in corridors surrounding the state’s largest metropolitan areas. Several are north of Dallas, while others surround Austin or Houston. In fact, the pattern surrounding the state’s major metropolitan areas is quite impressive. Counties with gains of more than 3% virtually encircle the Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Austin areas. Of the 10 fastest-growing counties across the country, four are in Texas including Kaufman (6.0%), Liberty (5.4%), Montgomery (4.8%), and Caldwell (4.6%). Harris County was the national leader in net population increase, with other Texas areas not far behind.
It’s no coincidence that these rapidly growing areas are proximate to the dynamic economies of large Texas cities. People are drawn to their excellent opportunities, while nearby smaller areas frequently offer lower housing prices and further amenities.
Population growth is not a given. In fact, international migration is slowing substantially, and many areas are seeing notable declines or stagnant patterns. Even in Texas, numerous counties primarily west of the I-35 corridor are facing this situation. It can easily become a perpetuating cycle. When people leave small towns and rural areas for the job options in the larger cities, it becomes difficult to sustain or attract new activity due to an insufficient workforce. Nonetheless, Texas is in a highly advantageous position relative to the many states experiencing more widespread and severe declines.
We are projecting that Texas and its major metropolitan areas will continue to be growth centers, which will likely lead to an ongoing source of new residents for surrounding areas. Rapid population increases bring challenges such as crowded roadways and a need for other infrastructure, but they are also a sign of the good things going on in the Lone Star State. Stay safe!
______________
Dr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com), which has served the needs of over 3,000 clients over the past four decades.
