Texas Border Business
The dynamic urban centers dotting the vast Texas landscape play a dominant role in the economic prospects of the state. Our latest forecast shows expansion for all metropolitan areas in Texas in the decades to come, though the specific industries and growth patterns vary markedly among them. World economic events will impact the outcomes, but Texas cities are well positioned to add jobs and increase output over the next 30 years. The largest population centers are expected to provide most of the increase, but the smaller metropolitan areas will also contribute to employment and overall economic growth in the state.
The largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), which are currently home to around 70% of the Texas population, are expected to generate about 78% of the job growth in Texas over the next 30 years. In the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA, employment is projected to increase at a pace of 1.76% per year through 2054, adding 947,700 new positions and substantially outpacing the Texas growth rate. The Dallas-Plano-Irving Metropolitan Division (MD) is forecast to add 1.97 million net new positions, up 1.63% annually over the long term, while growth of 1.57% per year is projected for the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine MD, adding 732,200 new jobs.
The El Paso MSA is expected to grow at a rate of 1.42% yearly, adding 204,000 jobs through 2054, and the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA is forecast to see an increase of 1.60% per year for an additional 2.16 million positions. Growth is also expected in the McAllen-Edinburg-Mission MSA, adding 181,000 new jobs at a yearly rate of 1.53% over the forecast period. The San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA is projected to grow at a 1.58% annual rate for total job gains of 749,400 new positions through 2054.
Though the absolute employment increases are not as large, several of the less-populous MSAs are expected to see expansion at or above Texas’s annual rate of 1.57%. Midland (1.67%), Tyler (1.60%), Brownsville-Harlingen (1.59%), Waco (1.57%), and Sherman-Denison (1.57%) are expected to lead the way for smaller MSAs, Strong expansion of over 1.50% yearly is also projected for Laredo (1.53%) and Odessa (1.51%). The remaining small population centers are forecast to add jobs at a pace of 1.35% or more per year over the next three decades.
Although the latest forecast has contracted somewhat from last year’s outlook due to economic uncertainty and the impact of current policies, the outlook for Texas metropolitan areas remains strong. The most significant absolute gains will naturally occur in the largest population centers as they continue to expand their geographic footprints, but smaller areas will also play a critical role in ensuring the continued availability of jobs and economic opportunities for Texas residents. Stay safe!
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Dr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com), which has served the needs of over 3,000 clients over the past four decades.
