Texas Border Business
New population estimates were recently released by the US Census Bureau, and the results indicate that the pace of growth has slowed significantly, driven (not surprisingly) primarily by a drop in international migration. For the United States, population grew by 1.8 million (0.5%) between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, with international migration dropping to 1.3 million from 2.7 million in the prior year.
While the pace of growth slowed in Texas as well, the increase was far larger than any other state at more than 391,240 – about 1,072 new Texans every day. Rounding out the top five were Florida (196,680), North Carolina (145,90), Georgia (98,540), and South Carolina (79,958). In terms of the pace of expansion (fastest rather than largest increase), South Carolina led the way, followed by Idaho, North Carolina, Texas, and Utah.
The pattern among states was quite uneven, though all but five expanded. California experienced the largest decline, with a loss of almost 9,470 residents; Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont and West Virginia also decreased.
Taking a closer look at the Texas changes, the 1.25% rate of increase was substantially larger than the national pace of 0.52%. However, the most recent uptick (391,240) represents significant slowing from the previous years, when it was approximately 599,330 (2024) and 601,250 (2023). As with the nation, the primary reason for the drop is international migration, which fell from over 354,860 for the year ended July 2024 to 167,480 last year. In-migration from other states was also down (from 86,070 to 67,300).
A few key takeaways are worthy of note. First, the opportunities in Texas continue to draw new residents to the state. These people represent workers essential to the ongoing expansion of the economy. It’s a sharp contrast to some areas, such as California, where people continue to exit due to high costs of living, slower job creation, and other problems.
Second, reasonable paths for people from other countries to live and work legally in the United States (and, especially, Texas) are crucial to future growth in the workforce. While border security is clearly essential, there are industries already facing severe worker shortages (construction, agriculture, and hospitality, for example), and without international migration these problems will worsen.
Third, with well over a thousand people arriving in Texas every day (even after things have slowed), we need to remain on top of the needed investments to maintain quality of life, productivity, and, indeed, sustainability. From education to highways, water, and electricity, a growing population requires expanding infrastructure.
Growth in the Texas population has slowed, but it remains significantly more robust than most parts of the country. It’s an important competitive advantage, setting the stage for future economic expansion. Stay safe!
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Dr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com), which has served the needs of over 3,000 clients over the past four decades.
