Texa Border Business
Texas Border Business
The Supreme Court of the United States is expected to rule on whether Donald Trump exceeded his authority by using emergency powers to impose tariffs, a decision that could affect more than half of projected tariff revenue for fiscal year 2025. The issue was discussed this morning by Maria Bartiromo during a live market segment as investors awaited the court’s decision.
At the center of the case is the president’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify tariffs that currently account for about 56 percent of projected tariff revenue in fiscal year 2025. The court is weighing whether those measures were permitted under the law or whether the White House overstepped its authority.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed the issue in public remarks, saying he expects what he described as “a mishmash ruling.” He said the administration has “other tools” available if the court limits presidential authority and added that tariff revenue collection is expected to continue even under a narrower interpretation of the law.
Market expectations already lean toward some form of limitation or reversal. Prediction markets have assigned a 70-80 percent probability that the court will rule against the administration’s use of emergency powers. That expectation has tempered investor reaction ahead of the decision.
Michael Lee, a strategy founder who joined the discussion, said markets are unlikely to react sharply. “If you look at the prediction markets, the betting and the odds of this being overturned are between 70 and 80 percent,” Lee said. “Even if they get overturned, it is what does the relief look like. How exactly does that play out?”
Lee said the details of the ruling matter more than the headline outcome. “That’s what’s going to determine the moves in financial markets versus a selloff or a market rally,” he said. “Most of this is largely priced in.”
He also noted that the Supreme Court often issues narrow decisions in cases involving executive authority. “The Supreme Court historically in cases like this kind of splits the baby,” Lee said. “They’re not really courageous in terms of taking bold stances to undo things.”
Analysts say that even if the court strikes down the use of emergency powers in this instance, future tariffs could still be imposed through more limited legal authorities. As a result, Lee said the ruling is unlikely to materially move markets. “It will be a news story,” he said. “I just don’t think we’re going to move markets or the economy all that much, because there’s all these other tools that they’re going to come back with and try to get the same net results.”
