Texas Border Business
It’s a fact of US demographic life that school enrollments are likely to trend downward. The population is aging, birth rates are dropping, and consequently there are fewer school-aged children. The National Center for Education Statistics estimates that enrollment fell by 2.1% between 2017 and 2022, with a decline of 5.5% projected through 2031. The changes vary dramatically across the country, with drops exceeding 13% in California, Hawaii, New Mexico, New York, and West Virginia through 2031 projected. Texas is forecast to fall by only 0.9% (but will expand modestly if current migration patterns persist).
The Texas Education Agency (TEA) indicates that during the 2023-24 school year, more than 5.5 million students were enrolled in public schools, an increase of 12,804 over the prior year. The 0.2% change is the smallest since TEA began collecting enrollment data in the current system.
Enrollment patterns across Texas independent school districts (ISDs) were notably uneven, with about half losing enrollment between 2022-23 and 2023-24. Thousands fewer students were present in some of the state’s largest districts (such as Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, and Arlington). There are also some small districts that have been hit particularly hard, with drops of at least 25% in more than a dozen.
Conversely, those in growth corridors (including Prosper, Katy, and Conroe, among others) saw substantial gains. Dealing with the rapid influx can also bring adjustments.
In some areas, charter schools contributed to shifts in both directions. Metropolitan area growth patterns are also an issue, with boundaries landlocking some ISDs (and, therefore, curtailing enrollment potential), while new subdivisions emerge in neighboring districts. The likelihood of school choice legislation will also affect ongoing patterns.
Enrollment changes are difficult for schools. Under the Texas Constitution, school districts and charter schools receive payments based on prior-year average daily attendance (ADA). Fewer students mean declining resources.
Moreover, without as many pupils, buildings and staff may be underutilized. Larger districts may face difficult choices, including closures. For smaller districts, survival at a level that adequately prepares students for the future can become challenging, and consolidations may be required (some have already occurred). Students, teachers and staff, and communities may be negatively affected by such dislocations.
It is imperative that Texas provide the resources needed to assist in the necessary transitions while improving quality and outcomes across all ISDs – those that are expanding and those that are not. More than 80% of students educated in our schools will live in the state as adults. Texas is much better positioned than many regions, but lags significantly in public school funding. These invaluable institutions prepare our future workforce, the currency of economic development and prosperity for decades to come. Their future is our future! Stay safe!
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Dr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com), which has served the needs of over 3,000 clients over the past four decades.
