Texas Border Business
Texas Border Business
As summer progresses, the National Weather Service forecasts several key trends for the Rio Grande Valley from July through September 2024. Here are the main takeaways:
Warmer Than Normal Temperatures
Expect temperatures to remain above normal throughout the summer. The precise location of the heat dome this summer will play a crucial role in determining the intensity of heat experienced in the region. Although there’s a slight tilt towards wetter-than-normal rainfall through September, tropical systems will significantly influence the overall weather pattern.
Influence of the Heat Dome
Confidence is high that temperatures will continue to run warmer than normal. However, it remains uncertain where the most intense heat will be located. The heat dome is currently swinging across different parts of the country and is expected to settle in a specific region by August-September. Current weather models suggest that the core of the heat will likely be situated north of the Rio Grande Valley, over the south-central and central U.S., with occasional shifts towards the western and eastern U.S. until mid-July. This could result in persistent onshore flow and intermittent chances of showers and storms developing off the sea breeze.
Rainfall and Reservoir Levels
Despite the beneficial rains, key reservoirs like Amistad and Falcon have yet to see significant increases in water levels. Falcon Reservoir’s levels remain critically low, and Amistad’s total water levels are at record lows as of late June. Without another tropical system, total storage levels will likely stay at or near record lows through the summer.
Occurrence of 100° Days
While the region is likely to experience 100° days from July through September, the frequency of these days remains uncertain. The northward placement of the heat dome suggests that the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas region might avoid some of the most intense heat. If current forecast trends continue, this summer may not match last year’s extreme heat.
Dependency on Tropical Systems
The region’s water reservoirs are heavily dependent on tropical systems. This season is expected to be active, and additional tropical storms could significantly impact rainfall totals and water storage levels. Tropical Storm Alberto has already provided some relief, but ongoing rainfall over the region remains crucial.
Overall, while the Rio Grande Valley is bracing for a warmer-than-normal summer, the precise impact of heat and rainfall will largely depend on the movement of the heat dome and the activity of tropical systems. Residents should stay prepared for fluctuations in weather patterns and the potential for beneficial rains and intense heat waves.
For more details and updates, you can refer to the National Weather Service’s forecast for the Rio Grande Valley​(Weather.gov)​​
