Texas Border Business
Texas continues to shatter records for new jobs. The expansion has been broad based, both in terms of industries and geographic areas. Our latest projections call for notable employment gains over the next five years, though the pace will vary along with external conditions.
By 2027, the level of employment in Texas is forecast to rise from 13.9 million in 2022 to 15.2 million. That’s a gain of some 1.3 million net new jobs and a total increase over the five-year period of 9.5%. (Note that we use the wage and salary measure of employment, which does not include proprietors.) Let’s briefly examine our latest projections by industry group.
Almost one in five net new positions over the next five years is likely to be in the professional and business services industries. These firms provide specialized services such as legal advice and representation, accounting, architectural work, engineering, design, computer services, and consulting. The segment also involves businesses that manage other companies or support day-to-day operations of other organizations.
Health care and social services industries are expected to generate about 18% of new jobs over the next five years, while accommodation and food services accounts for about 13%. Retail trade is forecast to create over 9% of overall gains, while the public sector and other services segment each contribute about 6%. Notable increases are also projected for transportation and logistics as well as wholesale trade, each of which adds almost 5% to overall growth.
Regarding industry groups that are increasing at the fastest pace (as opposed to generating the most net new positions), health care and social services tops the list, with a total employment gain over the next five years of almost 15%. Strong rates of increase are also expected in the mining industry group (mostly oil and gas in Texas) and educational services (among others).
Several industries are less likely to be the source of large overall increases (though some are relatively small). The utilities, agriculture, information (which is largely publishing and media), real estate and rentals, and arts and entertainment segments are all projected to see increases of fewer than 18,000 jobs over the next five years (with some much lower).
As with other highly developed economies, Texas employment growth is concentrated in services-oriented industries, but manufacturing is also expanding at a healthy pace. Our projections indicate an increase in the number of manufacturing jobs of almost 7% over the next five years. One aspect of this expansion is the emerging importance of life sciences products.
The diverse and dynamic Texas economy is certainly not immune to national and global challenges, but the state is well positioned to generate opportunities across a broad spectrum of industries. Stay safe!
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Dr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com), which has served the needs of over 3,000 clients over the past four decades.
