Texas Border Business
Texas Border Business
As of November 6, 2024, Hurricane Rafael has strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds reaching 100 mph (160 km/h). Currently situated approximately 120 miles (190 kilometers) southeast of the Isle of Youth, Rafael is advancing northwestward at 14 mph (22 km/h). The hurricane is expected to land in western Cuba later today, bringing heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and the potential for significant flooding to the region.
In anticipation of the storm’s landfall, Cuban authorities have issued evacuation orders for over 37,000 residents in Guantanamo province. Additional warnings have been disseminated throughout affected areas. The U.S. State Department has advised against travel to Cuba and is aiding in the departure of non-essential personnel. Residents and travelers are urged to stay vigilant, adhere to evacuation orders, and monitor updates from local officials as conditions rapidly evolve.
Following its passage over Cuba, Hurricane Rafael is forecast to enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This movement raises concerns for Florida Keys residents, who are urged to prepare for potential impacts from the storm. While there is high confidence in Rafael’s forecast track across west-central Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf, some uncertainty remains regarding its precise structure and path, leading to varying levels of potential impact on the Keys.
Key Impacts in the Florida Keys Include:
- Coastal Flooding: Communities on the Atlantic side of the Florida Keys could experience saltwater flooding today and tonight, with water levels potentially reaching up to 2 feet above mean higher high water, or approximately 1 foot higher than recent high tides.
- Wind Risk: The likelihood of sustained tropical storm-force winds has decreased, with probabilities now just below 20% for Key West and just below 10% for Marathon and Layton. Winds may arrive as early as this afternoon but are more likely to increase in intensity this evening. The potential for strong or damaging sustained tropical storm-force winds (55 mph or greater) has dropped to nearly 0% for all areas of the Florida Keys.
- Severe Thunderstorms: A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms has been issued for the Lower and Middle Keys this afternoon and tonight. This could include isolated tornadoes and potent thundery squalls capable of localized wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph. Meanwhile, the Upper Keys face a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for similar conditions.
- Heavy Rainfall: Locally heavy rainfall from passing storms may result in street flooding and affect areas with poor drainage. Total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with localized higher amounts possible.
Preventive Measures in the Gulf of Mexico
Energy companies operating in the Gulf are taking precautionary measures to anticipate Rafael’s potential disruptions. Non-essential personnel have been evacuated from offshore platforms, and facilities are secured to minimize storm operational impacts.
Staying Prepared and Informed
Residents in the projected path of Hurricane Rafael are strongly encouraged to stay informed through official weather channels and to comply with any advisories, warnings, or evacuation orders issued by local authorities. With the storm’s trajectory and intensity subject to change, timely updates and preparedness measures are critical for public safety.
Please refer to the National Weather Service and local emergency management advisories for further updates.
