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The Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis has issued a critical threat assessment for the year 2024, highlighting a spectrum of concerns facing the United States, including the heightened risk of violence during the forthcoming election season. With the 2024 elections on the horizon, it is anticipated that these events will become focal points for potential violence and a hotbed for foreign interference, targeting not only election infrastructure and processes but also personnel involved.
A significant threat comes from nation-state adversaries who are expected to persistently engage in spreading mis-, dis-, and malinformation. These efforts aim to erode trust in government institutions, fracture social cohesion, and disrupt democratic processes. The advancement and easy access to emerging cyber and AI tools are likely to empower these actors, enhancing their capability to execute more sophisticated information campaigns. These campaigns can now easily include the creation of synthetic text-, image-, and audio-based content, which is of higher quality and produced at a lower cost.
Countries like Russia, China, and Iran are at the forefront of developing highly sophisticated online campaigns aimed at malign influence. As the 2024 elections approach, it is expected that many of the tactics employed by these nation-states will become more prevalent.
Key Points of the Threat Assessment include:
• Generative AI in Misinformation Campaigns: The rapid development and deployment of generative AI tools allow for the creation of high-quality, convincing synthetic content. This technology has been used to generate misleading information, as evidenced by several instances where hundreds of websites have utilized AI chatbots to produce false content. Notably, a Chinese government-controlled news site propagated a false narrative about the U.S. using AI platforms, while Russian influence actors have also been using AI technology to augment their operations.
• Russia’s Continued Influence Operations: Russia is expected to maintain its use of traditional media, covert websites, social media, bots, trolls, and individuals to amplify pro-Kremlin narratives within the U.S. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russian messaging has focused on justifying its aggression and attempting to weaken U.S. support for Kyiv.
• China’s Influence Tactics: China’s state and proxy media, alongside coordinated inauthentic social media campaigns, aim to influence U.S. audiences. These tactics are expected to continue and evolve as China seeks to shape U.S. discourse to its advantage.
• Iran’s Anti-U.S. Campaigns: Iran is anticipated to persist in its efforts to influence U.S. audiences through social media and fake websites, primarily to promote its anti-U.S. agenda.
The report further clarifies the differences between misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation. Misinformation refers to false, inaccurate, or misleading information spread without intent to deceive. Disinformation is similar but is spread deliberately to mislead or deceive. Malinformation involves the malicious use of otherwise accurate information, often taken out of context or used to harm specific individuals or groups.
As the 2024 election season approaches, the threat assessment warns of a convergence of threat actors. Domestic Violent Extremists (DVEs) might disrupt democratic processes due to their beliefs, while nation-state actors will likely harness novel technologies and cyber tools to enhance their influence campaigns. The goal remains the same: to undermine confidence in the fairness and freedom of U.S. elections.
Additionally, cyber actors will likely attempt to exploit vulnerabilities in election-related networks and systems, targeting public-facing websites, servers, and IT systems of state, local, and political parties, as well as personal devices and emails of election officials.
The Homeland Threat Assessment 2024 urges continued vigilance and enhanced security measures to safeguard the integrity of the U.S. electoral process and to combat the spread of foreign misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation.
Source: Office of Intelligence and Analysis, Homeland Threat Assessment 2024.
For you convenience download the DHS Threat Assessment
