Texas Border Business
The Austin economy expanded in December as strong job growth and a lower unemployment rate boosted the Austin Business-Cycle Index. Recent COVID-19 hospitalizations have declined since peaking in mid-January. Regional consumer spending has held at pre-COVID-19 levels since early December. However, existing-home sales weakened in December.
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Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic recovery gained some momentum in December, following softening in the previous month. Job growth accelerated and unemployment dipped, boosting the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes. Apartment demand outpaced expectations in the fourth quarter, while absorption of office space remained negative. Strong industrial leasing activity kept vacancy stable and below its historical average, despite elevated supply.
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The El Paso Business-Cycle Index signaled further expansion in the metro, though total nonfarm job growth was flat in December. Housing sales continued to strengthen, which tightened inventories and pushed prices up further. Trade volumes remained depressed, but industrial activity on both sides of the border accelerated.
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Recent indicators continue to portray an ongoing recovery hampered by the second wave of coronavirus infections. COVID-19 statistics for the Houston area worsened through mid-January, and weekly unemployment claims increased. However, COVID hospitalizations were easing heading into February and vaccinations of the general public were ramping up. Houston jobs continued to recover through the end of 2020, lagging the rest of Texas but on par with the nation. Local and international measures of manufacturing activity improved in December, while exports through Houston-area ports leveled off.
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After contracting in November, the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index rose in December as unemployment and job numbers improved. Fourth-quarter job growth was broadly positive across sectors. Local consumer spending declined after spiking in mid-December, and home sales activity moved sideways in December. The number of individuals currently hospitalized with COVID-19 decreased after peaking in late January.
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The Texas economy showed signs of growth in December as payroll employment strengthened and the unemployment rate inched down. Respondents to the Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated healthy activity in December, followed by weaker results in January. Oil prices and the Texas active rig count continue to climb, while the level of dining out in Texas varied by metro. The dramatic rise in hospitalizations in the state and nation due to COVID-19 in recent months is putting a strain on the health care system.
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